From Recovery to Resilience: Building the Evidence for Change in Tigray

For communities across Tigray, rebuilding after conflict is not simply a matter of returning to the way things were. The two-year conflict that began in 2020 severely disrupted agricultural production, markets, livelihoods and essential services across the region. Farmers lost productive assets and sources of income, while women and other vulnerable groups faced additional pressures as household and community structures changed.

Although the cessation of hostilities in late 2022 marked an important turning point, the effects of the crisis continue to shape everyday life. Oxfam has documented how conflict, drought, disrupted agricultural production and economic pressures have continued to affect food security and livelihoods across Tigray.

“But recovery raises an important question: How do we know when communities are becoming more resilient, not simply recovering from what they lost?”

That question sits at the heart of the work undertaken by BAN-DRCE for Oxfam GB and the Relief Society of Tigray (REST) under the RESILIENT – Diversified, Sustainable and Inclusive Value Chains in Ethiopia Project.

Looking Beyond Immediate Recovery

Food security is often understood in terms of whether families have enough to eat. In reality, it is connected to a much wider system. For rural households, food security is influenced by whether farmers can produce sustainably, whether they can access productive resources and services, whether markets allow them to sell what they produce, whether alternative sources of income are available, and whether financial institutions can support investment and recovery.

Women’s ability to access these opportunities and influence economic decisions is equally important. This broader understanding is particularly relevant in post-conflict settings. Recent work on economic recovery in conflict-affected Ethiopia has similarly shown that livelihoods cannot be strengthened through one intervention alone: access to assets, markets, finance, services and the realities faced by women all affect whether recovery can last.

The RESILIENT project, supported by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS), responds to these interconnected challenges by bringing together food security, sustainable agriculture, economic opportunity, market systems, financial inclusion and women’s agency.

For BAN-DRCE, the task was therefore not simply to establish where the project was beginning. It was to help create a foundation for understanding change.

Building an Evidence-Based Starting Point

Working with Oxfam GB and REST, BAN-DRCE supported the establishment of the project’s baseline and Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability and Learning (MEAL) framework. The work helped establish a clear picture of conditions at the beginning of implementation while strengthening the framework through which progress can be understood over the life of the project.

The assessment looked across the interconnected areas that shape rural resilience, including food security, agricultural livelihoods, women’s economic agency, access to markets and finance, and the capacity of households and institutions to respond to future shocks. Rather than viewing these issues independently, the work considered how they interact.

What the Baseline Helps Us Understand

Agriculture continues to provide an important foundation for rural households, but its contribution to recovery depends on the wider environment surrounding farmers: access to productive resources and services, functioning markets, opportunities to diversify income and institutions capable of supporting communities.

Food insecurity also cannot be separated from economic resilience.

When families have limited livelihood options, a poor agricultural season, market disruption or climate shock can quickly affect their ability to meet basic needs. Strengthening food security therefore also means strengthening the capacity of households to manage and recover from these shocks.

For women, resilience has another dimension.

Women remain central to agricultural production, household food security and local economies. Yet sustainable economic empowerment requires more than participation. It also requires meaningful access to resources, services, markets, finance and opportunities to influence decisions.

This aligns with wider evidence from conflict-affected Ethiopia showing that economic recovery for women depends not only on creating livelihood opportunities, but on understanding the practical and structural constraints that shape their ability to use them.

Why MEAL Matters

This is where the MEAL framework becomes more than a project-management requirement.

“A baseline tells a project where it is starting. A strong MEAL system helps answer what comes next.”

For BAN-DRCE, the contribution therefore extended beyond the baseline itself. The assignment helped strengthen the results framework, indicators and overall learning architecture through which the RESILIENT project can assess progress and generate evidence throughout implementation. In a context where conditions can change rapidly, that ability to learn and adapt matters.

From Evidence to Resilience

Tigray’s recovery is still unfolding. Oxfam’s own reporting from the region shows communities continuing to rebuild livelihoods after the combined effects of conflict, displacement, food insecurity and climatic pressures.

The challenge now is to ensure that recovery becomes more durable. That means strengthening agricultural livelihoods while expanding economic opportunities. It means improving connections between farmers, markets and financial institutions. It means ensuring women are able not simply to participate, but to exercise greater economic agency. And it means creating systems capable of learning from what works and responding when circumstances change.